Scaring children will be easy once we get out of college

The summer's most anticipated animated release will enter theaters this July. Monsters University, the prequel to Monsters Inc., is set to seize upon the Pixar name and its release date to make as much money as possible.

Release Date: July 11

What will be Monsters University's gross in HK?

It's back to the classroom for Mike and Sulley as they head to college for scaring classes before the big day when they will finally be able to scare on their own.

Prequels have had a hard time finding their voice in HK with recent films such as The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey, Paranormal Activity 3 and Puss in Boots failing to pass the original films in the series or films in the original trilogy. In particular, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey boasted about HFR which led to ticket prices soaring but viewers rejected it and it grossed less than Return of the King 10 years later. There are some prequels that have been successes such as Fast & Furious 6 and Final Destination 5 but the former added the original cast members back into the fold while the latter added 3D prices to its belt.

For Monsters University, this will be a tough year. Lots of animated releases are coming out and they are all tightly packed together. A string of 10 animation releases will come out during 8 consecutive weekends beginning June 20. It looks precarious for the giant horned monster and one-eyed friend but Disney is pulling out all the steps with marketing. They are even neglecting their other big film The Lone Ranger to promote Monsters University. That's not all though because Disney HK even created their own posters of Monsters University for the HK market.

Monsters University is going back to the formula that made Toy Story 3 a squishy success: a mid July release date and no competition on the same weekend. Back in 2010, Toy Story 3 catapulted with a huge opening weekend of $3.239m. It was one of the biggest opening weekends at the time and to this day is still the biggest animated opening weekend of all time. Pixar has come way down since then with Cars 2 in 2011 and Brave flopping last year so the announcement of Monsters U's July release date was a welcome relief for Pixar fans and animated enthusiasts.

The Pixar brand has fallen a lot since Cars 2 drew Pixar's first rotten film. Now other studios such as Dreamworks Animation and Blue Sky Studios are challenging Pixar's dominance in the animation scene. Pixar, meanwhile, is hoping that Monsters University will put them back on top. It's an inspired choice and one that will succeed at Hong Kong's box office. Pixar films have always been a very popular choice in HK with many in the past grossing 2m or more but the uncertainty surrounding Monsters University is due to Pixar's recent track record. Still, Disney is giving this everything they've got though with huge promotion and branding. Toys will play a big role as Monsters University is certain to have extra promotion with it. Children will want their own scary monster to play with and the tie-in with the movie will certainly win kids and families over.

Marketing is extremely good for the toon as posters are out and about even though Man of Steel is dwarfing all the billboards and posters in subways right now. Once Man of Steel buzz is over, there will be a lot more anticipation for Monsters University and the full effect of Disney's marketing campaign will be felt.

Release date is great with no competition on the same weekend. Although it will have the 3rd weekend of Epic and the 2nd weekend of Despicable Me 2 to contend with, both are not big animation moneymakers so it's clear scaring for Monsters U. Man of Steel will be in its 3rd weekend but most of its money will come from the opening 5 days so Monsters University won't be affected that much.

Monsters University will win at least one round but the weekend after will really determine where it goes. Pacific Rim moved out of Monsters University's way and was postponed 1 week after to July 18. There's enormous buzz for that as well so if Monsters wants to win a 2nd weekend, it needs to have excellent word of mouth. Both can win the weekend although the release of Turbo puts a damper on Monsters University's chances. Turbo is not a big animation release but it will still cut into Monsters University's gross a little.

After its 2nd weekend, The Wolverine and SDU: Sex Duties Unit come out on Monsters University's 3rd weekend. They will duke it out for #1 and take more screens away from Monsters University. The yearly Doraemon release won't affect Monsters University at all since it's a very small franchise.

Monsters University's 4th weekend will see The Smurfs 2 open. There's a possibility that The Lone Ranger could also come out here but Disney has been shunning this to the side with no HK poster published nor confirmed release date set in stone yet. Monsters University will have to watch out for The Smurfs 2 as that is the other major animation release of this summer. The first Smurfs grossed a decent 2.2m in a mountain of disappointing animation films in 2011.

Overall, the schedule looks very tight with so many animation releases and blockbusters in Monsters University's way but it does have opening weekend to itself.

In 2002, Monsters Inc. grossed $3.32m. There was no 3D and it had lower ticket prices but Monsters University will have much higher ticket prices than Monsters Inc. due to the 3D surcharge. It will also eclipse Toy Story 3's ticket prices so there's some good news.

Pre-sales are looking fantastic with it outpacing The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises and even Iron Man 3. Even theaters in rural areas are doing great. 2 theater chains have released early pre-selling. It has been doing remarkable business at UA. 1 week of pre-selling has passed and all 6 theaters have 1/4 of their showings full. Harder to reach Megabox has filled at least 35% of seats on Saturday and Sunday. At MCL, this has just started pre-selling a few days ago. At the two higher traffic areas, Telford and STAR Cinema, both have seen brisk pre-sales. STAR's Sunday morning session for Monsters University is half way filled already. Theaters will have to make a lot of room for Monsters University when it comes out next Thursday. Toy Story 3's OW animated record is going down and Iron Man 3's non-holiday OD and OW records could be in deep trouble if Monsters University keeps on going like this.

Opening weekend: $3,400,000 $4,400,000
Total: $9,200,000 $12,300,000 (2.80 multiplier, +270% from Monsters Inc.)

Monsters University will command a very high gross on opening weekend with no competition in sight. Pacific Rim is a big conundrum but it will have a very strong 2nd weekend in gross regardless. Much like Man of Steel, the only thing that is stopping Monsters University from 10m is prequel factor, Pixar's recent record and high quality competition. Other than that, it will win this year's summer animation title by a long mile.