Sunday, June 2, 2013

May 30 Weekend Estimates


Weekend Estimates

May 30
RankMovieTW% chgTotal
1Fast & Furious 6$670,000-43.5%$2,295,000
2American Dreams in China$190,000

$196,500
3Pee Mak Phra Khanong$185,000-7.5%$875,000
4The Great Gatsby$150,000-37.5%$1,100,000
5Star Trek Into Darkness$140,000-55.6%$1,970,000


Fast & Furious 6 was the #1 film for the 2nd weekend in a row, clipping an estimated 44% from last week. It surpassed Fast Five on Friday and became the franchise leader in just 2 weeks. Separating itself from the others, it took control from the rest of the field on Thursday and made more than the next 3 combined this weekend. It also secured other achievements this weekend, racing past 2m for the first time in the franchise.

This weekend was a dead zone for new openers with 4 films missing the top 5 and audiences were left with holdovers which Fast & Furious 6 benefited from. Fast & Furious 6 was the 2nd in the series to shake off less than 50% its 2nd weekend after Fast Five. Its hold did not reach the level of Fast Five's 2nd weekend drop due to its OW more than doubling Fast Five's, however, its 44% hold represents good audience approval and great WOM among moviegoers. User reviews are down slightly but it's still at a scorching 94%. The After Earth-The Hangover 3 combo next week will severely test Fast & Furious 6's staying power. If it can stay in the 50% range for next week, it might even have a shot at 3.5m. After this week, it will stand at 2.5m and the speedster is looking at a total of 3.2m.

American Dreams in China was the lone debut in the top 5 this week. Its opening was much better than recent Mainland launches from the likes of Lost in Thailand, Tai Chi 0/Tai Chi Hero and The Guillotines but far away from Journey to the West: Conquering the Demons. Strictly based on its own performance, its opening weekend is weak, however, based on the flops and disasters in the past 6 months from the Mainland market, it is OK. Competition will be extremely fierce the next couple of weeks. A Mainland-South Korean production A Wedding Invitation gathers next weekend and then Mainland hit So Young drops in the following week. Also Hollywood films After Earth and The Hangover 3 will garner the most attention from viewers next week so legs will be dicey. WOM is strong with 91% favoring the comedy, however, it might not be enough with so many films coming out the next couple of weeks.

Last weekend, Pee Mak Phra Khanong was not able to work its way into the top 3 despite holding well, however it did the job this weekend as it came close to unseating American Dreams in China for #2. In the end, it eased 8% from last weekend and saw its total creep to an estimated $875,000 in 18 days. Next weekend could be trouble as Panasia has scheduled Long Weekend into 18 theaters, possibly killing Pee Mak Phra Khanong's momentum. WOM sits a solid 89% but that might not be enough as theaters will showcase the two big Hollywood openers, Long Weekend and holdover Fast & Furious 6 over Pee Mak Phra Khanong. Theaters will carry American Dreams in China for a 2nd week so it's looking like Pee Mak will have to share a screen with others. It will hit 1m by next weekend. If it does not suffer heavy losses next week, it might be able to sneak by Ong Bak as possibly the biggest Thai movie of all time in HK.

A few theaters cut The Great Gatsby this week but it fought back with a nice hold. It ended up dumping 38% from last weekend and moved into 7 figures. It's already Baz Luhrmann's biggest hit but The Great Gatsby now becomes his first 1m film in HK. There will be no direct competition next weekend so it is expected to have the best hold of any release in the top 5 this week. It has a chance to make it to 1.5m, however, it should finish around 1.4m.

Star Trek Into Darkness is in its 3rd week but so far its legs have not been up to snuff. WOM is extremely positive but it has not been able to catch the public outside of its main demographic. It will pass 2m on Tuesday but its 56% fall does not bode well for next weekend when After Earth and The Hangover 3 shoot the holdovers down. It is looking to finish with 2.15m, a good sum overall when compared to Star Trek but scrutinizing the figures closer and it won't even make a 2 multiplier from its OW.

Outside the top 5, The Haunting in Connecticut 2: Ghosts of Georgia screamed upon seeing its opening weekend number. It spooked $90,000 from moviegoers and it made just 23% of The Haunting in Connecticut's opening weekend. The Haunting in Connecticut opened at #1 when it was released 4 years ago but this time, the sequel faced insurmountable competition coming from Pee Mak Phra Khanong, which is the new flavor of the month. Deciding to release The Haunting 2 in this period was part bad luck on Intercontinental's part but mostly bad timing on their part. They could have released this in March or April where there was only 1 horror release for the entire 2 months instead of now. The success of Pee Mak Phra Khanong and Long Weekend next weekend will kill off any chance of legs and I see a total of only $200,000.

Iron Man 3 stumbled this week after several weeks of good drops. It saw progressively worse drops as the weekend wore on which means that audiences are tiring of the superhero. It passed 13.5m this weekend with an estimated $88,000 weekend (-58%). Total stands at a mindblowing $13,565,000.

Christmas Rose disappeared its 2nd weekend, surrendering 69% from last weekend. Its 2nd weekend scored just $43,000 and its total moved to a disappointing $227,000 after 11 days.

Populaire, the French romantic comedy, wrote $41,500 worth of tickets this weekend. It played in 8 theaters and averaged a $5,187 PTA.

Dead Man Down was bled dry with $39,000. It got a wide release in 23 theaters but produced an awful $1,695 PTA. Dead Man Down will be exactly as the title states next weekend.

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