Sunday, June 23, 2013

June 20 Weekend Estimates


Weekend Estimates

June 20
RankMovieTW% chgTotal
1World War Z$2,050,000
$2,166,000
2Now You See Me$710,000-44.7%$2,396,000
3The Hangover 3$82,000-70.2%$1,485,000
4American Dreams in China$38,000-40.6%$582,000
5Miracle in Cell No. 7$35,000-43.4%$123,000


A typhoon couldn't stop World War Z as it annihilated the competition and staked its claim for the biggest surprise of the year by winning large with an estimated $2,166,000 in 5 days. That is good enough for the #2 opening weekend of the year behind Iron Man 3. Even after a huge opening weekend from Now You See Me, World War Z one-upped it and created a frenzy among moviegoers with fantastic WOM, an attractive trailer and Brad Pitt. It opened on Wednesday night city wide with evening shows and scored big with $116,000 in gross. That led into its 2nd day and it took in $335,000 and over 31,000 in admissions. A tropical storm that lashed HK with heavy rains and gusty conditions was powerless to stop it as weekend returns skyrocketed with nearly $700,000 amassed on Saturday. Theater operators were not taking any chances and moved World War Z from 2 screens on Thursday to 3/4 screens on Sunday with the monstrous numbers. Brad Pitt can thank his lucky stars the Chanel commercial is referenced everywhere in HK. He's become even more of a draw after the parodies. World War Z will become Brad Pitt's biggest movie by next week. As for its outlook, 4m is a lock even with Man of Steel out next week. I think it will finish with 4.8m total. Man of Steel will kill its legs next weekend but if it can get through it with about a 60% decrease, it should be able to rebound the week after before Monsters University scares everyone to fall in line.

Now You See Me was the talk of the town last weekend and continued its run with an outstanding hold this weekend despite World War Z's dominance on top. It shed 45% from its opening weekend (including previews) but it lost only 27% of last weekend's business for the 4-day. Most theaters held screenings in 2 houses all day despite the onslaught coming from World War Z. It has become Jesse Eisenberg's biggest hit in 2 short weeks with it almost quadrupling The Social Network and nearly doubling Rio. It will finish with more than 3m. Judging by the schedule the next month, it might be able to end with 3.4m.

The Hangover 3 couldn't recover from World War Z's punch this weekend and lost 70% of business. Time is running out for it to pass Hangover 2 with Man of Steel set to light theaters on fire this Thursday. It will most likely succumb to Man of Steel's powerful opening leaving it less than $100,000 short of Hangover 2's gross. Though the last 2 weekends have not been great, it does manage to squeak by 1.5m which isn't a bad gross in itself.

After the top 3, there are 7 films within $15,000 of each other. American Dreams in China has the inside lane on #4 with a decline of -41%. Although the gross is small, it overtook Switch and So Young in just one weekend and crept into the top 5 once again. After 4 weeks, it has wrangled nearly $600,000 and it will do the deed next weekend.

Miracle in Cell No. 7 overcame the odds and just beat out Fast & Furious 6 for the last spot in the top 5. Though it started off in 9th place on Thursday, it has shot up the rankings since then and placed 4th on Saturday. It has enjoyed stellar WOM and is currently the highest rated semi-wide, wide or ultra wide release in theaters. It fell 43% from last week (including previews) but when you slice out the previews, it's down 33%. It is close to a 3 multiplier already and will breach $150,000 next week. $200,000 may happen but it has to hold well against Man of Steel.

Last weekend, Fast & Furious 6 came out on top for the 5th and final spot in the top 5 but this week it's on the losing end by just a hair. It was #4 on Thursday but it lost the edge on Friday when it was the only film of the top 10 to lose admissions. That opened the door to Miracle in Cell No. 7 slipping by and it took advantage by jumping ahead of Fast & Furious 6 on Saturday. For the weekend, it lands at #6 with $33,000 (-63%) and has accumulated $3,093,000 in its HK run.

After Earth was defenseless against the World War Z/Now You See Me combo. Thursday was terrible and it wasted away 80% of business from the week before. Friday was even worse before Saturday saw it have the worst increase of the top 10 with only +5%. Its week to week hold on Saturday was in the high 80's and it's pretty much dead next week. This weekend it shifted $28,000, decreasing 89%, for a total of $1,387,000. It will still make it to 1.4m but just barely.

Badges of Fury, the new Jet Li movie, opened on Friday with previews. WOM is pretty good from those that did show up and it will begin with over 3,000 admissions this weekend. It's estimated to gross $25,000 this weekend.

Switch got slaughtered by World War Z/Now You See Me and Badges of Fury sneaks and it got flattened this weekend. It also did not help that rancid WOM softened its 2nd weekend number. It entered this weekend's race at #4, despite placing 9th in Thursday admissions, but has seen soft increases and even declines. Saturday was its worst day with it dropping 22% from Friday. Overall, it is estimated to make $24,500, a decline of 86% from its 5-day opening weekend, and $244,500 in 11 days.


It took a zombie horror thriller to do it but Pee Mak Phra Khanong finally succumbed and only scraped $22,000 (-65%) for a total of $1,271,000. 10m HK looked to be a lock until this week but it will need to stabilize before it can pass $10m HK otherwise Man of Steel will push it out next weekend.

So Young is not doing well. It is in a battle with Pee Mak Phra Khanong for 10th and it will have to be decided by actuals before we know who got #10. So Young made an estimated $20,500 (-80%) for a poor total of $150,500. Average WOM has not been helping its cause and it will miss $200,000.

3 comments:

  1. Hello, do you know when Before Midnight will be released in Hong Kong? Thanks.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Yes, it will be released on September 5. Latest release dates for Hong Kong can be found here: http://hkreleasedates.blogspot.com/p/release-dates.html (or click Release Dates on the menu bar).

    ReplyDelete
  3. Thank you!

    ReplyDelete