Release Date: June 27
What will be Man of Steel's gross in HK?
The strategy from WB to delay Man of Steel by 2 weeks is a smart one. Opening in mid June is not a good place for a tentpole release as the weakest summer weekends come from there. Just ask Green Lantern. 2 years ago, Green Lantern saw envy when it returned with only $729,386 opening weekend. It beamed in less than 1.5m, barely doubling its opening weekend. It was a disappointing sum for a superhero movie and was another weak gross in a long line of soft overseas grosses.
Man of Steel won't be like Green Lantern and disappoint. It is expected to be one of the year's biggest grossers with box office analysts predicting Man of Steel to deliver an average of 300m total domestically and 750m WW even though it's a reboot. A reboot movie might scare people off as recent reboots like The Amazing Spider-Man and Dredd did not do as great as expected in HK. Industry analysts expected a lot more from both films but they disappointed to varying degrees.
Counteracting the reboot stigma is the fact that WB has marketed the film extremely well with numerous trailers and TV spots along with posters plastered at bus stops, subway stations, on buses and on billboards. There will likely be some promotion tie-in of Superman toys at McDonalds and at other places. It has gotten the blockbuster treatment in HK with posters out in full force 1 month in advance. It might not be The Avengers' of marketing but awareness will be very high when it opens.
How does being a reboot affect Man of Steel?
Last year's big reboot, The Amazing Spider-Man was affected by the reboot factor since Spider-Man 3 came out 5 years before it and the weak WOM it amassed put a dent in The Amazing Spider-Man's OW. Moviegoers were not clamoring for a new Spider-Man movie, therefore, The Amazing Spider-Man suffered for it. The Amazing Spider-Man opened on a Friday and swung to $2.77m from 161 screens. Those 161 screens were the 2nd highest screen count at the time so theater operators definitely expected a huge gross but it never materialized. Sure, The Amazing Spider-Man did well and almost made 8m but industry watchers anticipated much more.
Man of Steel faces a similar problem. It comes out almost 7 years after Superman Returns and is seen as a backtrack toward refueling the Superman franchise. The main question though is whether or not moviegoers will be forgiving and give Superman another chance after Superman Returns failed to take off. The difference between The Amazing Spider-Man and Man of Steel is that The Amazing Spider-Man was coming off of a trilogy where the first two were universally liked but Man of Steel is coming off of a unsuccessful launch from Superman Returns. There is no trilogy there to draw from so viewers may be more willing to accept a new Superman movie than a Spider-Man reboot with a trilogy fresh in viewers minds.
The reboot factor will likely affect Man of Steel a bit, however, WB has done an exceptional job with marketing to make you forget about that Superman film from 7 years ago.
Man of Steel's release date is very good but it won't be hogging all the screens to itself. It goes up against Epic, the first Hollywood animation film of the summer. Also taking a chance opposite Man of Steel are a couple of limited to semi-wide releases in Spring Breakers and My Awkward Sexual Adventure. Then on Friday, Jet Li's newest film Badges of Fury will head into theaters. Saturday will see 2 Japanese movies play on screens. That also doesn't include the weekend sneak previews for Despicable Me 2. Over the past 5 years, the #1 film has had 3 or less films open alongside it (this includes Iron Man 3). Excluding Despicable Me 2, Man of Steel will compete against 6 other films for screens. Whenever you have to fight for screens with so many other films, it is not a good sign. Competition will be bigger than usual. Of all the #1 films since 2008, none of them have had this amount and quality of competition combined. They either have one or both. Suffice it to say that this will be Man of Steel's biggest obstacle from reaching 4m opening weekend.
Edited: In a turnaround, pre-sales have been slow at most Broadway/AMC theaters with 3 days left to go. There is still no advanced booking at UA theaters at all. MCL is doing OK still but the lack of ticket sales at other theater chains is concerning. Interestingly, The Amazing Spider-Man also had similarly weak pre-sales like Man of Steel but walk-ins turned in a very strong performance for its 3 day weekend. I expect Man of Steel to mirror The Amazing Spider-Man's performance with pre-sales and final admissions this weekend.
Ticket prices for Man of Steel are through the roof. Man of Steel will be priced $5 higher than Iron Man 3 and The Avengers, at an average of $110 HK. It is the 3rd most expensive movie ticket of all time behind The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey and Avatar. If Man of Steel accumulated 300,000 admissions on opening weekend, that would be almost $200,000 extra with the $5 increase.
Man of Steel has the ingredients of a major blockbuster but where it lacks in strength are the fact that its a reboot and the quality of competition it faces. Epic and Badges of Fury are the two that is standing in its way of a 4m OW and then the Despicable Me 2 weekend sneaks will hamper its potential gross. As much as WB has tried to persuade viewers with so many ads, there is a negative stigma attached to a reboot. It's been well documented in the past year. The long running time and blockbuster surcharge will keep its chances of #2 alive but #1 is out of reach.
After opening weekend, it will have a great chance to hold well in its 2nd weekend with White House Down and The Heat getting chucked to August. Blind Detective and Despicable Me 2 are its two main competitors that week but they don't play to Man of Steel's demographic and are not blockbusters.
After that, it will see its first huge drop with Monsters University on July 11. Everything has stayed clear of the animated film and Man of Steel won't be able to sustain its holds with huge screen loss coming that week.
July 18 will see Man of Steel take another punch to the gut with Pacific Rim and Turbo opening. Pacific Rim and Monsters University will duke it out for #1 leaving Man of Steel powerless to achieving any resemblance of a good hold.
Another superhero movie comes out on July 25 when The Wolverine claws into theaters. It will be challenged by SDU: Sex Duties Unit for #1. Man of Steel will take another hit from direct competition and should be down in the 5 digit range by now.
The schedule after Man of Steel looks extremely cutthroat but Superman has never been known for good legs. Most of Man of Steel's gross will be made the first week before the other summer challengers arrive.
Opening weekend will be very strong. Epic and Badges of Fury will combine for at least $400,000 and then the rest of the new openers plus Despicable Me 2 special screenings will hurt Superman but it is one of the most heavily anticipated movies of the summer. Reboot factor and competition are the only two reasons stopping it from becoming #1 of the year and making 10m but it will lead off the new franchise in amazing fashion and smoke Superman Returns to smithereens.
Man of Steel won't be like Green Lantern and disappoint. It is expected to be one of the year's biggest grossers with box office analysts predicting Man of Steel to deliver an average of 300m total domestically and 750m WW even though it's a reboot. A reboot movie might scare people off as recent reboots like The Amazing Spider-Man and Dredd did not do as great as expected in HK. Industry analysts expected a lot more from both films but they disappointed to varying degrees.
Counteracting the reboot stigma is the fact that WB has marketed the film extremely well with numerous trailers and TV spots along with posters plastered at bus stops, subway stations, on buses and on billboards. There will likely be some promotion tie-in of Superman toys at McDonalds and at other places. It has gotten the blockbuster treatment in HK with posters out in full force 1 month in advance. It might not be The Avengers' of marketing but awareness will be very high when it opens.
How does being a reboot affect Man of Steel?
Last year's big reboot, The Amazing Spider-Man was affected by the reboot factor since Spider-Man 3 came out 5 years before it and the weak WOM it amassed put a dent in The Amazing Spider-Man's OW. Moviegoers were not clamoring for a new Spider-Man movie, therefore, The Amazing Spider-Man suffered for it. The Amazing Spider-Man opened on a Friday and swung to $2.77m from 161 screens. Those 161 screens were the 2nd highest screen count at the time so theater operators definitely expected a huge gross but it never materialized. Sure, The Amazing Spider-Man did well and almost made 8m but industry watchers anticipated much more.
Man of Steel faces a similar problem. It comes out almost 7 years after Superman Returns and is seen as a backtrack toward refueling the Superman franchise. The main question though is whether or not moviegoers will be forgiving and give Superman another chance after Superman Returns failed to take off. The difference between The Amazing Spider-Man and Man of Steel is that The Amazing Spider-Man was coming off of a trilogy where the first two were universally liked but Man of Steel is coming off of a unsuccessful launch from Superman Returns. There is no trilogy there to draw from so viewers may be more willing to accept a new Superman movie than a Spider-Man reboot with a trilogy fresh in viewers minds.
The reboot factor will likely affect Man of Steel a bit, however, WB has done an exceptional job with marketing to make you forget about that Superman film from 7 years ago.
Man of Steel's release date is very good but it won't be hogging all the screens to itself. It goes up against Epic, the first Hollywood animation film of the summer. Also taking a chance opposite Man of Steel are a couple of limited to semi-wide releases in Spring Breakers and My Awkward Sexual Adventure. Then on Friday, Jet Li's newest film Badges of Fury will head into theaters. Saturday will see 2 Japanese movies play on screens. That also doesn't include the weekend sneak previews for Despicable Me 2. Over the past 5 years, the #1 film has had 3 or less films open alongside it (this includes Iron Man 3). Excluding Despicable Me 2, Man of Steel will compete against 6 other films for screens. Whenever you have to fight for screens with so many other films, it is not a good sign. Competition will be bigger than usual. Of all the #1 films since 2008, none of them have had this amount and quality of competition combined. They either have one or both. Suffice it to say that this will be Man of Steel's biggest obstacle from reaching 4m opening weekend.
Edited: In a turnaround, pre-sales have been slow at most Broadway/AMC theaters with 3 days left to go. There is still no advanced booking at UA theaters at all. MCL is doing OK still but the lack of ticket sales at other theater chains is concerning. Interestingly, The Amazing Spider-Man also had similarly weak pre-sales like Man of Steel but walk-ins turned in a very strong performance for its 3 day weekend. I expect Man of Steel to mirror The Amazing Spider-Man's performance with pre-sales and final admissions this weekend.
Ticket prices for Man of Steel are through the roof. Man of Steel will be priced $5 higher than Iron Man 3 and The Avengers, at an average of $110 HK. It is the 3rd most expensive movie ticket of all time behind The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey and Avatar. If Man of Steel accumulated 300,000 admissions on opening weekend, that would be almost $200,000 extra with the $5 increase.
Man of Steel has the ingredients of a major blockbuster but where it lacks in strength are the fact that its a reboot and the quality of competition it faces. Epic and Badges of Fury are the two that is standing in its way of a 4m OW and then the Despicable Me 2 weekend sneaks will hamper its potential gross. As much as WB has tried to persuade viewers with so many ads, there is a negative stigma attached to a reboot. It's been well documented in the past year. The long running time and blockbuster surcharge will keep its chances of #2 alive but #1 is out of reach.
After opening weekend, it will have a great chance to hold well in its 2nd weekend with White House Down and The Heat getting chucked to August. Blind Detective and Despicable Me 2 are its two main competitors that week but they don't play to Man of Steel's demographic and are not blockbusters.
After that, it will see its first huge drop with Monsters University on July 11. Everything has stayed clear of the animated film and Man of Steel won't be able to sustain its holds with huge screen loss coming that week.
July 18 will see Man of Steel take another punch to the gut with Pacific Rim and Turbo opening. Pacific Rim and Monsters University will duke it out for #1 leaving Man of Steel powerless to achieving any resemblance of a good hold.
Another superhero movie comes out on July 25 when The Wolverine claws into theaters. It will be challenged by SDU: Sex Duties Unit for #1. Man of Steel will take another hit from direct competition and should be down in the 5 digit range by now.
The schedule after Man of Steel looks extremely cutthroat but Superman has never been known for good legs. Most of Man of Steel's gross will be made the first week before the other summer challengers arrive.
Opening weekend: $3,600,000 $2,700,000
Total:$9,500,000 $7,500,000 (2.78 multiplier, +130% from Superman Returns)
Total:
Opening weekend will be very strong. Epic and Badges of Fury will combine for at least $400,000 and then the rest of the new openers plus Despicable Me 2 special screenings will hurt Superman but it is one of the most heavily anticipated movies of the summer. Reboot factor and competition are the only two reasons stopping it from becoming #1 of the year and making 10m but it will lead off the new franchise in amazing fashion and smoke Superman Returns to smithereens.
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