Sunday, June 9, 2013

June 6 Weekend Estimates


Weekend Estimates

June 6
RankMovieTW% chgTotal
1After Earth$675,000

$675,000
2The Hangover 3$650,000
$650,000
3Fast & Furious 6$225,000-66.4%$2,755,000
4Now You See Me$140,000

$140,000
5American Dreams in China$125,000-36.2%$400,000


It turned out to be a closer battle than expected but After Earth snatched #1 away from the jaws of Hangover 3. Lambasted by critics and pulling in desolate numbers at the box office, it performed better in HK and around Asia as the full force of Will Smith's starpower came to light. Although marketed as the first real vehicle for Jaden Smith, many decided to go see it for Will Smith alone. Though it ended up in 1st place, it wasn't a dominant start as Hancock flew away with double the amount 5 years ago and Men in Black 3 swarmed the box office last year with triple the amount. Despite grossing below his previous movies, After Earth becomes the 5th straight Will Smith movie to enter the top 5 and the 3rd out of his last 5 to open at #1. After Earth has positive WOM with 81% giving it the thumbs up. WOM, however, has gone down with families and weekend couples dumping 10% from its rating after a 91% approval rating on opening day. After Earth will likely see heavy drops after the holiday. At this point, I see it making only 1.7m.

The Hangover 3 tried really hard but failed in its bid to become the first in the franchise to hit #1. WB marketed this as the last in the series which usually means a bump on opening weekend. Admissions through Saturday are even but Hangover 3 will take some damage on Sunday with a huge drop expected likely due to hazardous WOM. It only has a 37% approval rating from users with many calling it the worst. There's better news for its gross. It will debut as the highest in the franchise with about $650,000, about 28% better than Hangover 2's OW. Toxic WOM will likely kill its legs but it does have a leg up on After Earth since it will be the only comedy for the next couple of weeks. 1.6m could be its final spot, likely nudging out Hangover 2 for the biggest in the series.

Fast & Furious 6 got walloped by the top 2 and paid a significant price. It lost screens and crashed 66% but increased its total to 2.75m. 3m will still happen with the holiday on Wednesday but it won't make much more than that. This weekend it got pounded hard by Now You See Me sneaks and saw its Saturday and Sunday holds fall more than 60%. The announcement of Fast & Furious 7 next summer couldn't have come at a better time. This franchise is starting to heat up and next summer could transform the franchise from a big film to a full on blockbuster.

Now You See Me pushed ahead with sneaks this weekend and scored by making the top 5. It rushed in with more than 19,000 in admissions from the two days and made a big splash by planting itself inside the top 3 on both days. WOM is pretty strong at 85%. Now You See Me will re-appear on Wednesday and it will take in over $210,000 for the 3-day special screenings period. It is already a hit in North America and it is looking likely to becoming a hit in HK. Including next week's official opening, it could take in over $500,000.

American Dreams in China salvaged a good hold in the face of very strong competition. Though not directly affected, the fierce battle up top put everybody else on their toes but it was able to carve out a niche audience apart from the Hollywood films. After this weekend, it stands at $400,000 after 11 days but Switch opens on Wednesday so its good run so far could come to an end quite quickly. $600,000 should happen unless if Switch effectively squashes its legs.

Outside the top 5, Pee Mak Phra Khanong suffered its first taste of competition as it got derailed by the new openers. It lost 45% of last weekend's business but broke through the 1m mark with an estimated $105,000. Total is up to a fantastic $1,075,000.

The Great Gatsby pulled in an estimated $61,000 (-59%) to pump its total to $1,205,000.

Star Trek Into Darkness's 4th weekend netted an estimated $52,500 (-68%) for a 25 day total of $2,100,000. 2.2m might happen if it does well with the holiday.

Long Weekend flopped with an estimated $34,000 this weekend. The 18 engagements playing it will not be happy that it only scrunched up a $1,888 PTA.

A Wedding Invitation bombed and collected only $21,500 with estimates.

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