Honey, how many of these things will we have to go to?

Part 1. Part 2.

Nothing will prepare parents for the upcoming wave of animation movies this summer. They will be bombarded with animation from the small all the way to the big moneymakers. It is a very unusual summer for animation due to the big studios clumping animation together through May-August in the US. HK will be getting some day-date with US but when you add in the smaller animation films from Japan and the delayed Hollywood animation films, it is going to be tough decision after tough decision for parents as little kids will want to watch animation films this summer. The last 2 years has seen about 6-7 animation films hit the big screen from May-August but 2013 will be even worse for parents (but better for kids).

2013 Summer Animation Schedule	Date
The Garden of Words	May 31
Thomas & Friends: Blue Mountain Mystery	June 6
Ernest & Celestine	June 20
Epic	June 27
Despicable Me 2	July 4
Monsters University	July 11
Turbo	July 18
Doraemon: Nobita’s Secret Gadget Museum	July 25
The Smurfs 2	August 1
The Suicide Shop Planes	August 8

This summer will be unprecedented for animation. There will be 8 straight weeks of animation films beginning on June 20 and ending on August 8. 9 films will come out in that span so it will definitely be a 'blink and you'll miss it' moment for kids for 2 months. Before the mid summer craze, early summer will be fairly empty with small animation films.

The Garden of Words begins the animation schedule on May 31 (Friday). This is a Japanese anime flick. It comes from the director of Children Who Chase Lost Voices, which did very low numbers. Besides that, Japanese anime films have lost their lustre in the past few years and this won't turn the tide given the special release date. I see it making below $35,000.

Thomas & Friends is a cartoon staple in HK. Like the Doraemon series, the yearly video releases get a theatrical release in the summertime. Last year, Thomas & Friends: Day of the Diesels opened against the mammoth Avengers and only carted $24,000 on opening weekend. Meanwhile, Thomas & Friends: Blue Mountain Mystery won't be up against a behemoth but 2 solid hits in After Earth and The Hangover 3. It does not look good for Thomas as June usually sees kids write exams. Its gross will be small. Less than $50,000 is expected here.

Ernest & Celestine will be the first of 2 French animated films released this summer. It became a huge hit in France that allowed for an international release. Although there's a French contingent in HK, it is small. Gross will be low. I will say it will come close to $45,000.

Epic will be the first major Hollywood animated release of the summer. Opening on the 'unofficial' first weekend of summer, it will charge forth opposite of Man of Steel, which will steal crowds away. Domestic and overseas returns so far have been decent but not outstanding. If HK performs the same way, it might be able to do over 1m but Man of Steel will exacerbate its potential box office gross. Being the first animated film out of the gate is always good news but the delay and Man of Steel are big hurdles to overcome. Plus, you've got a host of other animated films including Monsters University and Despicable Me 2 in the following 2 weeks which could make Epic expendable. I will say it will make about $300,000 OW and $800,000 total due to the insane competition.

Despicable Me 2 gets stuck with July 4 which isn't a bad release date. It goes day and date with US, but trouble looms the weekend after in Monsters University. The first one opened to a disappointing weekend but finished with good legs. Interesting news coming out the past couple of weeks is that a couple of scheduled July 4 openers have moved to August. Despicable Me 2 will not move and does not have that luxury. It cannot move to any other weekend in July or the beginning of August so late August would be its only option. If it moved to late August, it would have lighter competition but its box office would crumble. Right now, it has to deal with Man of Steel's 2nd weekend and Blind Detective, the new crime drama from Andy Lau and Sammi Cheng. If Man of Steel is doing really well, theaters will retain 3 or possibly 4 screens for it leaving Despicable Me 2 with just 1 screen. I see this doing $750,000 due to the rush factor and summer holidays and $1,600,000 total with Monsters University scaring patrons away from having good legs.

After 2 years of crushing defeat, Pixar hopes to get back on the winning track with Monsters University. It is seeking to reclaim its former glory like in 2010 when Toy Story 3 dominated the summer and the year with over $11.5m. The amount of competition this year won't allow Monsters University to reach Toy Story 3's level but it is considered as 1 of the 2 marquee animation movies this year. Nothing worthy is opening alongside Monsters University that weekend so it will have the weekend to itself. Pacific Rim even cleared out of the way and moved to July 18 so Monsters University should be able to grab hold of a strong OW. Films released in the middle of July and the last weekend of June are considered surefire blockbusters. The last time a movie released in the middle of July and failed to make the top 10 was in 2001. Monsters University will certainly keep that streak alive. No competition on its OW will make sure of that. Cars 2 crashing in 2011 and Brave's disappointing gross last year has poisoned the image of Pixar to some but Monsters University should be able to overhaul Pixar's image critically and financially. Animation is in a tough spot this year with so many coming out all at once so I see a $3m OW for Monsters University and $8m total.

Dreamworks' Turbo is the next animation film on the list as it opens 1 week after Monsters University. Distributed by Fox, it is looking to crawl to the finish line ahead of its budget. Although its budget is currently unknown, it is likely to be over 100m as the last 13 DreamWorks films have seen their budgets soar to 9 digits. Add in the marketing and promotional materials and we're looking at over $200-250m. Another problem it has besides the budget is that the release date is troubling. It goes into the starting blocks July 18 and is up against a heavily promoted sci-fi action film in Pacific Rim. The combination of Pacific Rim opening and the 2nd weekend of Monsters University will affect Turbo's opening weekend potential. Those 2 films will be the top 2 films of the July 18 weekend and its very unlikely that Turbo pulls out a little nitro and zooms past either. Marketing will always be strong coming from Fox but I don't think they will pull kids in or couples with Monsters University being the prime choice for families. It should open to $250,000 and finish with about $700,000.

Doraemon: Nobita's Secret Gadget Museum is the next Doraemon movie in line for release. It will be the 4th straight Doraemon film to hit screens the last weekend of July and the 9th since 2005 to come out the last weekend of July or the first weekend of August. Recent Doraemon installments have been mixed. 2010 Doraemon film was an anniversary release and grossed over $350,000 but the 2011 yielded only $220,000. Last year's Doraemon film took in $368,000 amid weaker competition. 2011's Doraemon had to deal with Kung Fu Panda 2 released the week before and the fallout coming out of the anniversary release in 2010. This year's Doraemon will face heavy competition on all sides with Monsters University into its 3rd weekend, Turbo in its 2nd weekend and the other heavyweight The Smurfs 2 following the week after. I don't think it will hit $300,000 especially with the amount of competition this year. Entering HK cinemas at the end of July, Doraemon: Nobita's Secret Gadget Museum could open with $120,000 and $285,000 total.

8 animations down and we've only reached the first day of August. August 1 will feature the return of The Smurfs, which should be headlining this weekend. Its main challenger could be The Lone Ranger, however, its release date is currently being disputed. If The Lone Ranger is a go for August 1, The Smurfs 2 will look to sink the Johnny Depp western action comedy. In a sea of disappointment, The Smurfs was the only bright spot for animation in 2011. It opened to an average $678,084, however, it smurfed up some great legs with it slipping 38% on Cars 2's OW. It had the best hold of any release that weekend and it went on to achieve a 3.35 multiplier. Now The Smurfs 2 is coming back as a big release for Sony. The 3rd Smurfs has already been approved and it already has a North American release date set for July 24, 2015. Sony is showing a lot of confidence in the series by fast-tracking the 3rd after the 2nd barely started production. The Smurfs 2 will get great returns from Europe but Asia remains a question mark. The Smurfs got a great gross from China but was a minor hit in most Asian territories. It did terribly in Taiwan where it was nearly beaten by Indonesia after their crisis crippled its movie industry. Smurfs 2 will be a huge hit in China and should see modest gains around Asia. The amount of animation this summer is staggering but The Smurfs 2 will stand out as being a sequel. The Smurfs 2 will run with $1.3m OW and could make up to $3.6m if the first has good WOM like its predecessor.

The final weekend where animation is scheduled comes the following weekend when 2 animation films get released. Planes is the spin-off from Pixar's Cars where automobiles are traded in for the friendly skies. Planes won't be produced by Pixar but by DisneyToon Studios. Originally a direct-to-video release, it was shifted into a theatrical release. Planes will be under fire from The Smurfs 2 on opening weekend and the uncertainty surround its release does not help its potential. Cars is not a beloved release like many other Pixar films so making a spin-off off of a mediocre franchise will see its returns diminish substantially. Marketing will be interesting to watch since it's the very last animation release of the summer. Cars 2 bombed even with pretty good marketing so Disney is taking a huge gamble by sending this for a global release since Cars 2 underachieved worldwide. I cannot see Planes taking off smoothly. It's up against a giant in The Smurfs 2 and kids could be all wiped out from all the animation choices before then. I see somewhere around $150,000 on opening weekend and $500,000 total.

The Suicide Shop is the 2nd animation to be released on August 8. It is, however, not made for kids. A title as obvious as 'The Suicide Shop' won't get parents to bring in children but it falls under the animation scope here. It had previews earlier in the year and viewers were generally receptive of the black comedy. It will likely get a limited release but could close up shop as a minor hit. The French film has done OK in Europe so far. I could see it drawing $50,000 overall.