2013 Summer Schedule (Part 1)

This year's summer schedule is starting to fill up quickly. Blockbusters and animations have taken up most of the slots so far and Chinese movies are starting to pile up on the schedule. On the up side, Hollywood comedies have made a big return after last year's drive-by. Sci-fi movies are also trending upwards with at least one sci-fi release scheduled in each month. Details after the jump.
 

2013 Summer Schedule
Movie	Date
Oblivion I Give It A Year The Hunt Conspirators Like Somebody in Love Roman Polanski: A Film Memoir Will You Still Love Me Tomorrow? Seven Psychopaths	April 11
A Company Man The Host Drug War Tokyo Family	April 18
Iron Man 3 My Awkward Sexual Adventure	April 25
Trance	May 1
The Big Wedding Barbara No The Hypnotist Snitch Starlet	May 2
Promised Land A Chorus of Angels The Incredible Truth	May 9
Star Trek Into Darkness The Great Gatsby Kon-Tiki We Were There: First Love Christmas Rose Disconnect	May 16
Fast & Furious 6 We Were There: True Love Quartet	May 23
Evil Dead Searching for Sugar Man Populaire Now You See Me The Paperboy Playing for Keeps	May 30
After Earth The Hangover 3 Thomas & Friends: Blue Mountain Mystery jOBS	June 6
I’m So Excited The Internship	June 13
World War Z A Late Quartet	June 20
Epic Man of Steel Rigor Mortis (Compass)	June 27
The Lone Ranger	July 3
Despicable Me 2 White House Down The Heat Switch Greetings from Tim Buckley	July 4
Monsters University	July 11
Pacific Rim Turbo R.I.P.D. Mud	July 18
The Wolverine Doraemon: Nobita’s Secret Gadget Museum SDU: Sex Duties Unit	July 25
The Smurfs 2 Red 2	August 1
Elysium Lost for Words 300: Rise of an Empire The Way We Dance	August 8
Planes  Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters	August 15
Blind Detective The Mortal Instruments: City of Bones	August 22

Blockbusters: Oblivion will kick things off in 2 weeks and it will determine Tom Cruise's action star status. Tom Cruise's last film, Jack Reacher did average numbers in HK. It drove off with $1.16m from HK and $216m worldwide and it left Tom Cruise's status as a go-to action guy largely unaffected until now. Whereas Jack Reacher gets a pass for not being a big budget film, all eyes will be on this film since Oblivion is double the budget ($120 million). Oblivion will not only be competing against Iron Man 3 when Iron Man 3 opens is in its 3rd week but we will see who will win between the battle of the former A-list action stars, aka Tom Cruise vs. Will Smith. Oblivion looks headed for slightly below Battleship numbers (around 1m/2.2m final).

Iron Man 3 is next and will be looked at in more detail in an upcoming blog post.

Star Trek Into Darkness is the next big blockbuster on the list. Paramount screwed up the first Star Trek by placing it in the beginning of June when they should have put it in early May. It only left HK with 1.2m but it was saved thanks to great holds in its 2nd and 3rd weekends. In any case, the sequel has 2 major things going for it. 3D will increase the total by over 50% and the synchronized release date with US along with weaker competition will allow for a bigger opening. The Great Gatsby will provide a little competition but Star Trek will rule for 1 weekend. Star Trek 2 is aiming for 3m total.

The next weekend, Fast & Furious 6 will overtake Star Trek. Fast & Furious 6 is coming off of a very successful 5th installment which made 626m worldwide off of a 125m budget. In HK, Fast Five raced through the franchise in just 5 days and became the highest grossing film of the series in that short period of time. It skidded only 29% in its 2nd weekend and cruised by the franchise combined total in its 4th weekend. By the end of its run, it grossed more than $1.8m. Fast & Furious 6 is looking at a total over 2m due to the 5th's success.

After Earth is the next big film. For Will Smith, it will be his first non-Men in Black, big action role after he disappeared from Hollywood in 2008. He came back last year with Men in Black 3 which rode on the franchise and Will Smith's coattails to the tune of 5.7m in HK. Now Will Smith will share the screen with his son Jaden in hopes of rejuvenating his career while jump starting Jaden's. After Earth may be Will Smith playing it safe but it's sure to be a box office hit, at least in HK. I see this making 2.5m.

I'm not sold on World War Z. Although it is a big budget film with Brad Pitt as the lead, most zombie films never really appeal to HKers. To add to its problems, it comes out 2 weeks after After Earth, another post apocalyptic film and one week before Man of Steel, which will surely kill any and all of World War Z's legs. Right now I see a total of just 1.4m.

Man of Steel will be looked at in more detail in an upcoming blog post.

Pacific Rim is unleashed on July 18 and it will challenge Prometheus's total. It has a good release date and is far enough away from the sci-fi films in June that it won't be affected by them when it comes out. Monsters University will be slight competition but the 2 films will be able to co-exist. Ryan Reynolds' double feature of R.I.P.D and Turbo won't be too hard for Pacific Rim to handle. The Wolverine opens the following week but Pacific Rim should have accumulated a huge total by then. I see this making 3.9m.

The Wolverine opens July 25 and this could do something like 1.5m/3.3m total. It has 3D and it'll be far away from Man of Steel when it comes out. Kick Ass 2 won't be much of a factor regardless of where its scheduled.

Elysium is unlocked August 8 and should do slightly better numbers than Total Recall. Another post-apocalyptic film and Matt Damon starring. This is slightly more interesting than Total Recall. It'll be affected by the 300 sequel but should peel off with better legs. Around $400,000/1.2m total.

300: Rise of an Empire also opens the same week and will suffer a bit from competition as well as prequel-itis. I see $600,000/$1.5m for the sequel to the surprising 645m worldwide hit.

Percy Jackson 2 vs. The Mortal Instruments - City of Bones: Percy Jackson 2 goes up against The Mortal Instruments in the 2nd last week of summer. Percy Jackson 2 has the slight edge because it is a sequel and the last one made over 2m. The Mortal Instruments will have an uphill battle if it wants to defeat Percy Jackson and gross over 2m near the end of summer. Percy Jackson 2 could wind up with 2.2m and Mortal Instruments seems headed for 1.5m.

Animation: This entire genre will be looked at in more detail in an upcoming blog post.

Comedies: This entire genre will be looked at in more detail in an upcoming blog post. 

Chinese/Local: It's tough to pinpoint any numbers for any of these films. None of them have locked down a release date except for the ones in April. Conspirators is the 3rd film in The Detective franchise. The Detective 2 made $789,000 in 2011 and the first one made over $700,000 in 2007. This could make about $900,000 if marketed correctly. Drug War is the latest from Johnnie To and stars Louis Koo. It's in Mandarin, however, and it opens 1 week before Iron Man 3. It's unlikely to gross very much. The rest of the Chinese films don't look very good except for SDU: Sex Duties Unit. Directed by Pang Ho Cheung, he reunites with Chapman To for another comedic outing. Box office take should be around 2.5m.