Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Which scary film will viewers choose on this frightening weekend of summer?

Who will viewers choose: the horror film that blows your mind or the wannabe horror film for kids on the scariest weekend of this summer?

                            vs.                         


Weekend Predictions
July 11
RankMovieTW% chg
1Monsters University$3,500,000
2Tales from the Dark 1$400,000
3Despicable Me 2$210,000-81.1%
4Blind Detective$160,000-76.3%
5World War Z$110,000-77.2%


Monsters University hopes to put all animated films to rest when it clears out theaters this weekend. As the premier animated choice this summer, this will fill up theaters faster than both Despicable Me 2 and Epic combined. Moviegoers who were not appeased by Epic or Despicable Me 2 finally get to see their option come to the big screen and the promotional tie-ins at 7-Eleven and other chains have been instrumental in spreading the word. Monsters University is not a brand new Pixar movie but the prequel to Monsters Inc., which grossed 3.32m in 2002. Now, Monsters University is expected to more than double it and could even triple it if it has exceptional word of mouth. Monsters University has had unprecedented pre-selling with it selling faster than The Avengers, Iron Man 3 and The Dark Knight Rises. Theaters, however, have not been so kind. Most theaters have put this on 2 screens and dispersed the rest of the screens among Tales from The Dark Part 1, Despicable Me 2, Blind Detective and World War Z. Broadway/AMC seems hellbent on showcasing their film Tales from the Dark Part 1 and most have given it the biggest screen over Monsters University. The loss of the biggest theater at the biggest theater chain on Thursday and Friday will likely stop Monsters University's chances of 4m. Other theater chains have given Monsters University 2-3 screens but UA remains Monsters University's biggest supporter with 3 screens. It has even gotten support from IMAX locations with all 3 theaters giving it 4-5 showtimes on the big screen. MCL is also giving this 2-3 screens. Weekend should see a huge increase with it grossing over 1m on both days. Thursday, Saturday and Sunday have all seen very high pre-sales while Friday's pre-sales are a bit weaker. Adjusting for the loss of the big screen at Broadway/AMC, Monsters University will take home the animated OW crown away from Toy Story 3 but will miss out on becoming the first ever animated feature to hit 4m with $3,500,000.

Tales from the Dark Part 1 is a two part scarefest that is supposed to mess with your mind. The horror will be split into 2 with the first part out this weekend and the 2nd one releasing on August 8. Interest is high in the film with 6 acclaimed filmmakers directing 6 different stories and many recognizable actors in the movie. Pre-sales though have shown the opposite with theaters virtually empty at most locations. A few have scraped out OK admissions but these are few. Broadway/AMC theater chains remain undeterred and are showcasing this on 2 screens, most on the biggest screen. This is an EDKO film and they own Broadway/AMC, therefore, they are trying to help it as much as they can. Other theater chains are locking this down on 1 screen or even half day showtimes. Horror movies, in general, tend to be very frontloaded and with Monsters University showing very high pre-sales, I see this having a good opening day but gaining mildly this weekend. Theaters will direct more screens to Monsters University this weekend which will put a strain on its weekend admissions but for opening day and Friday, it should be unaffected. Opening very wide, this will attack with $400,000.

Despicable Me 2 threw down the gauntlet to any animated challenger last week with 1.4m combined on opening weekend. Its opening weekend gross is good considering it tripled the first one's OW. It will march into this weekend vulnerable since the blockbuster opening this week is direct competition and going to take a lot of screens away from it. It will lose at least 1 screen and the biggest screens will be divided among Monsters University/Tales from the Dark. Despicable Me 2's overall screen loss should number in the 60-70% range. Due to Monsters University's influence, this will drop the hardest in the top 5 by over 80%. Tackling its 2nd weekend, it will gross $210,000 for a total of about 2.15m.

After punching Man of Steel to grab 2nd, Blind Detective will be on the ropes this weekend with the 2 openers thwarting its chance of 2m. It opened to $825,000 including previews and will pass 1m before Thursday. Andy Lau's most recent offerings have been frontloaded and combining that with the competition this week, this will nosedive. It will not be directly affected by genre pics but Tales from the Dark 1 is a local offering that should hinder its 2nd week gross. Walking toward the light, Blind Detective will snatch another $160,000 and accumulate 1.265m for its 11-day gross.

World War Z will outgun Man of Steel for 5th with many places opting to keep it around for another week over Man of Steel. Though its drop will not be stellar, it can take comfort that it passes 5m this week. Its run is ending soon but World War Z will score at least one more victory over Kal-El. World War Z is looking at $110,000 for an outstanding 25 day total of $5.3m.

Plagued by average word of mouth, theaters are showing no remorse for the caped one and many have decided to pull this out of theaters on Thursday. Man of Steel has lost support even at IMAX theaters and all 3 have reneged on its showtimes for Monsters University instead. Theaters have seen how weak it held last weekend and have made up their mind to cut it loose. It will lose at least half of its theaters and will show just 1 a day at most of its remaining theaters. This will entertain $75,000 worth of business (-91%) for a disappointing $4.12m.

Now You See Me enters its 5th weekend on high spirits. It recently passed 3m and is the #6 film of the year to date. After a great hold last weekend, Now You See Me hopes to do it again but there's just too much competition for it to have a good hold. It will push for another $50,000 this weekend (-69%) for a 5 week total of 3.43m.

Epic returns for a 3rd weekend but things are looking dark. As if Despicable Me 2 wasn't enough, Monsters University is the big kahuna of animation films this summer. Epic's 2nd weekend hold was not good, therefore, it will also see theater reductions this week. Many will drop Epic this week and the remaining few still showing it this weekend have put it on for 1 showing a day. Judgement day is coming and Epic will be nowhere to be found this weekend, bagging only $25,000 (-86%). It will miss out on 1m. Cume will hit $875,000.

Midsummer Formula held only average on its 2nd weekend with it dropping from its 2-day OW. Even making half of Suspect X is out of the picture with its tiny 2nd weekend. The majority of theaters are moving this out on Thursday. It will only make $20,000 (-88%) this weekend for a grand total of $620,000.

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