Monday, July 22, 2013

July 18 Weekend Estimates

Did Pacific Rim crash in ahead of Monsters University at the finish line this weekend?

Weekend Estimates

July 18
RankMovieTW% chgTotal
1Monsters University$1,900,000-42.9%$6,700,000
2Pacific Rim$1,640,000
$1,640,000
3Despicable Me 2$320,000-43.4%$3,175,000
4Turbo$285,000
$285,000
5Tales from the Dark 1$180,000-62.6%$858,000

Monsters University did not win its 2nd weekend easily but it outmaneuvered Pacific Rim to claim its 2nd weekend as the #1 film in Hong Kong. Normally, theaters schedule their ticketing 3 days in advance and they use pre-selling to determine which films deserve the biggest screens. For the most part, theaters were very steady this weekend. They remained committed to either Monsters University or Pacific Rim but Monsters University held a huge advantage heading into the weekend with extremely high pre-sales that theaters' hands were tied. Pacific Rim was no slouch in the pre-selling department but being an original film hurts its potential for a pre-selling frenzy unlike Monsters University. To illustrate, Monsters University was doing so well early on in the week that it was crushing Pacific Rim with pre-sales by 4:1 and even 5:1 at some theaters. At one Monsters University stronghold, it defeated Pacific Rim's whole day of pre-sales with just its morning pre-sales. That being said, this situation allowed for a little more breathing room to swipe past the sci-fi action thriller this weekend. One interesting thing to note though was that as more positive reviews came in for Pacific Rim, the less walk-ins Monsters University got. Monsters University went from 19,000 walk-ins on Thursday to only 14,000 on Sunday. Sunday was likely its best day though as it made more than $550,000. It passed Kung Fu Panda 2 for #2 animated all-time on Thursday so now it has its sights set on Toy Story 3, the biggest animation release of all time. Getting there will be a lot harder than it looks with the upcoming schedule and the recent trend. It has already fallen off Toy Story 3's pace in its 2nd weekend and there lies a huge animation release waiting to descend on August 1. Judging from the slight setback this weekend, it looks like a 10.3m final total is approaching.

Warner Bros. did not want to compete with Monsters University last weekend so they had to postpone Pacific Rim's opening by one week. It proved a smart move as the Monsters University frenzy took over last weekend. They did pay a price though. Not only was it the 2nd Asian market to not have Pacific Rim open at #1 but HK is the only Asian territory where it was denied the #1 ranking by a Hollywood release. The good news is that its opening weekend is pretty good and word of mouth is strong. Sunday was its best day as it increased from Saturday, being fueled from good reviews. Reviews have been largely positive with many calling it entertaining but the somber news is that legs have not been great in some territories. With The Wolverine landing in Hong Kong, it's expected to continue that trend here. Pacific Rim will surely be affected by The Wolverine more than Monsters University and it will need to make most of its money within the next few days. Good reviews only means so much when screens are moving to other films. A compelling problem that theaters will have to make is whether to move Pacific Rim to 2D next week. Usually, theaters will force 3D onto moviegoers on its opening weekend, however, if it's not performing well, they will make the switch to 2D to get some extra money. Fortunately for Pacific Rim, moviegoers are actively seeking to watch it in 3D. The problem with that is The Wolverine and SDU: Sex Duties Unit are going to come out firing next weekend which means Pacific Rim should only be able to take 1 screen with it next weekend. All of the competition next weekend should equal to poor legs so a 3 multiplier is not going to happen. A 4.1m target sounds just about right.

Although this summer has surprised just about every which way, Despicable Me 2 has been one of the more alluring runs to experience. It not only outgunned the box office golden couple of Andy Lau and Sammi Cheng on opening weekend but navigated the Monsters University storm with relative ease. That was not all as it quelled the early negative reviews by carving out the family audience to a tee. This weekend was no exception to its fantastic run. A new Hollywood animated release did not do much to stop the Despicable Me train as it once again had one of the best holds of the top 10. Some of the milestones it captured this weekend included doubling Despicable Me's total and jumping into the top 10 for the year. Perhaps showing a sliver of weakness, it declined on Friday from Thursday and it only had a mild increase on Sunday. Its WOM is good by animation standards but is not in the realm of Epic, Turbo or even Monsters University. All of the other animated Hollywood releases this summer have seen higher scores but with Turbo just starting, this could begin to roll down the cliff in the next couple of weeks. Judging from the impending doom from The Smurfs 2 and more animated fare to come next week, this might close with 3.7m.

FOX's next animated Hollywood fare came at a lightning quick pace from Dreamworks' Turbo. Though it opened day-date with US, the animation market here is saturated with Monsters University and Despicable Me 2. Opening another animation in a crowded market is not good business but Dreamworks could not move it to another weekend this summer. August is tight with The Smurfs 2 and Planes and middle to late August is not a good time for animation because summer is winding down. Box office usually comes down by mid August so releasing it there is not an option for Dreamworks. Some good news came out of its low opening though. It garnered the highest reviews for an animation this summer, ahead of all the other animation releases. It sits at a sturdy 99% from users. Unfortunately, since the market is overflowing with animation, theaters will be more likely to scratch the lowest performing animations off their list since this summer is an aberration from most years. Another animation comes out next weekend in Doraemon and then The Smurfs 2 rolls out the week after so there is not a lot of time to make money for Turbo. The next few days could decide its fate. If it pulls ahead of Despicable Me 2 then it might be able to survive next week. For now, I don't see things changing. Despicable Me 2 has already proven its a steady performer while Turbo has only begun its run. Turbo might have to make do with only $800,000 here.

Tales from the Dark Part 1 might have prevented a bigger Monsters University opening last weekend but it also helped Monsters University at Broadway/AMC theaters this weekend by locking in the 2nd biggest screen at the biggest theater chain. EDKO are going to support their film no matter what so Pacific Rim could only manage the 3rd biggest screen at the combined theater chain. The 2nd biggest screen did not help and it still fell by more than 60% from last week due to SDU: Sex Duties Unit's expansion of sneak previews, decent word of mouth and by horror movie frontloading. There is not much left in the tank for Tales from the Dark Part 1. The only thing left to decide is whether or not it makes 1m. SDU: Sex Duties Unit is going to carry the local flavor next week and theaters not with the Broadway/AMC brand will be looking to cut this from their schedule. It should fall even harder next week but will the 13 theaters from EDKO be enough for it to crawl past 1m? It looks like it will barely do it by the slimmest of margins.

Blind Detective soldiered on but SDU: Sex Duties Unit's extra previews this weekend caused it to scramble. In the process, it lost more than 50% from last weekend. Its 18 day haul has been remarkably good given the recent failures from Andy Lau and this will go down as a hit for the box office golden couple. A $150,000 weekend sends it to $1,805,000. 2m does not seem to be reachable with all the competition next week so 1.9m looks like a good fit.

Despite being stuck in 9th in admissions, World War Z leaped over I'm So Excited in gross. The Brad Pitt zombie vehicle thrashed around with Pacific Rim prowling the streets so it lost a lot of business from last weekend. Rocking another $55,000 on its 5th weekend, it has fed on $5,450,000 after 5 weeks in release. 5.5m looks to be passed next week but it will have to escape with it after the weekend.

I'm So Excited, the new Pedro Almodóvar film, did good in limited release from 5 theaters. It sported a $50,000 weekend for a $10,000 PTA. Another arthouse/limited release is set to release next week and WOM has been downright awful so it should fall off next week. Tickets have started to fall off so it does not seem to have any staying power. A $110,000 total could be its final approach.

Now You See Me tussled with Man of Steel and capitalized on Man of Steel's lack of word of mouth to dislodge Kal-El from a #9 ranking. Collecting an estimated $30,000 in its 6th weekend, it has sewn up $3,535,000 from Hong Kong.

It's been a recurring theme for Man of Steel but it "had another bad hold this week". Word of mouth has never materialized and it has not even cracked a 2 multiplier when you take its 5-day opening weekend. Worst news still is that it is dying down now and will finish only 1/3 better than Superman Returns' total. A 4th weekend of $28,000 beefs up its total to a flabby $4,255,000.

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