What will Iron Man 3 gross in HK?
In 2 weeks time, Iron Man 3 will fly into theaters and begin its overseas onslaught with more than 50+ territories taking part. HK will be one territory to watch as it was one of only three markets where Iron Man 2 did not open at #1 but took in more than $1.5m opening weekend. Iron Man 3 hopes to conclude the successful franchise with an elusive title that has escaped its grasp the last 2 times: the #1 film of the year worldwide. The only thing in its way will be another 'Man' movie later on this summer like last time when Iron Man 2 opened in HK.Iron Man 2 debuted in HK on May 30, 2010, a Friday, to great results. It opened to $1,529,782 in 3 days whereas Iron Man opened to $1,180,256 through 5 days. Normally under such circumstances, that would be enough to win the weekend but it had to concede #1 to another "Man", Ip Man 2, where that amassed over $1.7m in 5 days. Iron Man 2's opening weekend made up 42% of the weekend and the two "Man"'s collected more than 90% of box office receipts that weekend. The next weekend saw it prevail over the first Iron Man with 2.8m grossed through 11 days but there was a shortcoming. While Ip Man 2 eased 28%, Iron Man 2 dumped 48% from opening weekend. That drop is perfectly fine on the surface but Iron Man 2 didn't open on the traditional Thursday on its opening weekend so that drop is comparing a 4-day 2nd weekend to a 3-day opening weekend which makes the decline a bit more alarming. Moreover, there was very little competition for screens with the top opener for that weekend grossing just $110,000. Weekends after that were mundane with only 1 weekend holding above 50%. WOM for Iron Man 2 was good but not outstanding and it showed late into Iron Man 2's run. Overall, Iron Man 2 finished with $3,760,485, +32% from the first Iron Man, a healthy increase for the sequel despite encountering major competition.
Disney is hoping that the absence of a major film in Iron Man 3's opening weekend and the presence of 3D will send it soaring to new heights. What remains to be seen, however, is whether or not Iron Man 3 will have similar superhero status like Spider-Man, Superman or Batman. Spider-Man, Superman and Batman are much more popular than Iron Man in HK and judging from the first two films, it seems that interest in the Iron Man franchise is not as high as the other superhero films.
Release date is exceptional with no other competition around for 3 weeks. It will give Iron Man 3 a lot more breathing room than when Iron Man 2 faced off with Ip Man 2 opening weekend. The thing that might bring Iron Man 3 a little pause will be its 4th weekend when Star Trek 2 and Great Gatsby come out together. Star Trek 2 will do much better than the first so circumventing a drop below 50% is almost impossible for Iron Man 3 that weekend but a lot of its business will have been made already so only hundreds of thousands of dollars will be affected, not millions.
There has been tons of promotion with posters hitting the subway stations since late January, 3 months ahead of its release, and identical to the marketing platform that Avengers got last year. There are toys, 3D glasses and other marketing tools to entice the kids. Fliers have been posted at bus stations, on buses, subways to full effect and trailers are showing on TV to alert people of the new sheriff in town. While new films usually get 2 weeks of promotion everywhere, Iron Man 3 got posters up in subway stations 3 months in advance and fliers at bus stops 3-4 weeks ahead of its opening weekend. That only happens for a select few.
Theaters have already started with advanced ticketing and ticket sales have been great. Early reports from high traffic theaters are about 30-60% full, with The ONE being the standout location with showtimes about 80% full at night. Rural theaters are doing a bit less but that is expected as many people will buy tickets just before showtime and not 2 weeks out. As we get closer, theaters will add more screens for pre-selling and rural areas will start to get really busy the week leading up to Iron Man 3. Another great thing that Iron Man 3 has is opening day midnights, which, for non box office people, means it is going to be a BIG film. Not many movies have led off with midnights. Only Transformers 3 and The Avengers started with midnights in the past 2 years. The Amazing Spider-Man, Harry Potter 7-2 and The Dark Knight Rises all did not have midnights. Meanwhile, IMAX continues to be a hot seller for these superhero blockbusters with night shows at iSQUARE already at 85-90% capacity. Megabox IMAX is also doing amazing business with over 90% filled during peak hours.
Aggregating these factors, there's nothing standing in the way for Iron Man 3. It has a great release date, no competition for 3 weeks, huge promotion, big pre-sales, midnights, 3D and pricier tickets. It would be a shock if this made less than 7m. My prediction is as follows:
Opening weekend: $3,500,000
Total: $9,500,000 (2.71 multiplier, +153% from Iron Man 2)
It is crazy to think that 3.5m might even be disappointing but let us recap. It has all the right tools in regards to promotion, theater scheduling, the addition of 3D, ticket prices and all these will prop up Iron Man 3's opening weekend number. Where I think Iron Man 3 will fall short is that I do not think it's a premier superhero character like Spider-Man or Superman is. As much as I want to see it succeed and break all kinds of records, Iron Man still suffers in character to the other cartoon superheroes and more lackadaisical word of mouth from the 2nd film will have a slightly negative impact on Iron Man 3. Something to remember is that the first 2 Iron Man's both had trouble with their multipliers. Iron Man 1 & 2 were not able to crack a 2.5 multiplier and Iron Man 2 could not do it under extreme firepower on opening weekend. In recent years, sequels have recorded better legs therefore this is why I believe Iron Man 3 will break a 2.5 multiplier this time despite its sluggish legs in the franchise. I do not expect a breakout of X-Men: First Class or Fast Five's calibre due to formidable competition in its 4th and 5th weekends. After four straight years of breaking through the 10m barrier, Iron Man 3 and 2013 could very well miss it.
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