March 28, 2013 Weekend Predictions

The last weekend of March will feature some interesting match-ups including GI Joe 2 and The Croods and Finding Mr. Right and Ip Man: The Final Fight. Easter will provide the catalyst for a bump in sales from last weekend. Predictions and analysis after the jump.

March 28 Weekend Predictions
Rank	Movie	Prediction	% Change	Total
1	G.I. Joe: Retaliation	$1,500,000 (5-day)		$1,500,000
2	The Croods	$950,000 (i.p.)		$950,000
3	Finding Mr. Right	$340,000 (i.p.)		$340,000
4	Ip Man: The Final Fight	$300,000		$300,000
5	Olympus Has Fallen	$250,000	-51%	$935,000

Note: (i.p.) means including previews.    In just a few weeks, the summer season will kick off and everyone will be watching a certain superhero movie. Till then, 2 sets of holidays will have to placate theater owners. In recent years Easter season has become increasingly more profitable and distributors have been packing more films into Easter week. In 2011, 11 movies rushed into theaters while 2010 saw 7 films being offered up. This year will be eerily similar to 2010 which saw 1 big action release duke it out with an animated release while 3 local films followed behind. The sequel to G.I. Joe will headline theaters this week after less than ideal early test scores caused the film to be partially re-shot and a 3D conversion imposed by Paramount forced the action film to postpone its deployment until this weekend. It will be challenged by the caveman animated adventure The Croods which got a head start in theaters with Saturday previews last week. 2 local films will lag behind the top 2 while Beautiful Creatures replaces the 3rd local film of 2010 as a filler. Thursday/Friday will be inflated by the Good Friday holiday and Good Friday will be the biggest day for most films. The past 2 years have seen films climb well on Good Friday only to see a 15-20% drop on Saturday and then another 5-15% on Sunday. Interestingly, last year was a special case as Ching Ming fell on Wednesday and then the Easter holidays happened as usual and altogether it became a 6-day holiday for some people. But this year, it's back to boring old Easter holidays with no extra holiday on Wednesday. 

G.I. Joe: Retaliation swoops into theaters this week and will lead the box office. Its release hasn't been without problems though. Reaction to the early preview screenings last year was so bad that it practically handcuffed Paramount to pull the plug on G.I. Joe 2's summer release last year. Also, Paramount wanted to capture the rising stardom of Channing Tatum at the time so they decided to re-shoot and incorporate more Tatum scenes into the finished product. One added bonus that came out of this is the conversion to 3D. 3D is still a major force to be reckoned with although now 3D is starting to lag in non-blockbusters. While G.I. Joe is not the biggest blockbuster out there, theater owners will be comforted that the 3D decline hasn't started yet in the Hollywood action market. And as part of its push into the international market, quite a number of territories around the world are showing Wednesday previews of G.I. Joe 2. In Hong Kong, Wednesday previews will be widespread as almost all theaters will begin night showings at 7:30 pm. Almost all locations have it in the biggest theaters. Business remains fairly strong for a Wednesday night considering many people do not know/can't make the Wednesday previews. It is displaying huge strength in the early-going stages on Thursday as it is out in front in all key theaters by a wide margin over all the other releases. IMAX is looking strong with half filled Wednesday night and into peak showtimes on Thursday and Friday.  The first film began with a little more than $650,000 which this one should eclipse easily. Including Wednesday previews, it is targeting a $1,500,000 opening.

The Croods, a family of cave-dwellers who venture outside into the vast world for the first time, seeks to be the first animated movie in 7 years to walk away with a million dollars. Easter used to be a very strong weekend for animated films with Ice Age 2 and Howl's Moving Castle both grossing over 1m (albeit with a 7-day gross). Still, the decrease in the past few years is disturbing as this is one of the few weekends in the Spring season that distributors will actually schedule an animation film. The Croods is getting the 2nd biggest theaters at most places with a few exceptions. Last weekend, it was showcased in a majority of theaters and uncovered $182,000 in previews. Its previews were much stronger than Wreck-It Ralph's last December but weaker than the Ice Age 4 previews. Where it shined was its audience approval. Audiences who saw this last week gave it a sparkling 100% which bodes extremely well for this weekend. The previews will be added along to this weekend and it should come close to 1m. Debuting in more than 30 theaters, The Croods looks to lug $950,000 from the Easter holidays.

After 5 weekends of previews, Finding Mr. Right is set to open this weekend. It has the huge benefit of getting the biggest distributor in EDKO and their theaters have put this on the 2nd or 3rd biggest screens. While others are accustomed to getting 1 or 2 weeks of pre-screening, the very early launch for Finding Mr. Right might have deflated its overall buzz. Its first special previews were sold out but as more screenings were held, showings started to falter and audience capacity was only about 80% full. This suggests that while there is some interest, it is not translating over to most of the movie-going audience. Also, reviews seem to be above average but not outstanding. Ticket sales have been slow with this falling behind Ip Man: The Final Fight but it will come out on top of Ip Man due to a huge preview bankroll. Finding Mr. Right will have to settle for #3 with $340,000 accumulated from previews and this weekend.

The power of Ip Man remains strong as another Ip Man film comes out of the gates. After the success of Ip Man 1 & 2, Ip Man films have been reeling off like coins flying out of the slot machine after a winning pull. Its for good reason though as The Grandmaster came out earlier this year to a 1m opening. Ip Man: The Final Fight won't be able to replicate The Grandmaster's success but there is a contingent of fans ready to watch these types of films. Theaters are a different story as Ip Man are in the 3rd or 4th biggest theaters, usually a sign of low interest. Pre-sales, however, are high and it is beating Finding Mr. Right at most places. The long previews for Finding Mr. Right will force the martial arts star to take 4th place. Opening with a wide release, Ip Man will whip up $300,000 this weekend.

Olympus Has Fallen, last weekend's #1, will fall to 5th as openers will take and demand the biggest screens. Reviews are generally positive and a bigger opening will prevent it from getting severely cut with showtimes. It scored $508,000 last weekend, the 3rd biggest for Gerard Butler in his career behind 300 & Lara Craft Tomb Raider 2. The Easter holidays and good reviews will help buoy the drop and it should fall around 50% this weekend. In its 2nd weekend, Olympus Has Fallen will take away $250,000, a 51% decline, for a 2 week total of $935,000.

Unable to secure a distributor for a February release, Beautiful Creatures was delayed until this weekend. Buzz is low and the breakout of Warm Bodies does not help. It has been relegated to the smallest screens with the wide release it got but ticket sales have been slow. Even with the holidays, this looks like a clear loser that has amassed no traction with viewers. Stumbling into a wide release, Beautiful Creatures will conjure only $175,000.